Below, we look to outline potential answers to the following questions:
– How much energy (and electricity) will the world need in the future?
– Will the world run out of energy (and electricity) in the future? (i.e. can supply meet demand?)
Summary – How Much Energy Will We Need In The Future, & Will We Run Out?
How Much Energy Does The World Currently Use?
Total global primary energy consumption in 2021 was around 604 quadrillion Btu
To express energy use another way, the world used around around 18 trillion watts of power in 2016
Global per capita energy use data can also be found below
How Much Energy Does The US Currently Use?
In terms of total primary energy consumption, the US uses about 16% of total world primary energy consumption
The US’ per capita annual power consumption is also much higher than the global per capita figure
Recent Global Energy Consumption Trend
Global annual energy consumption has been trending up over the last few hundred years, with a significant increase in annual consumption occuring in the 20th century – particularly around 1950
Is There Currently Enough Energy & Electricity In The World For Everyone?
Many people in higher income or more developed parts of the world generally have enough energy and electricity for everyday needs
But, many people in lower income or lesser developed parts of the world have either limited access to energy and electricity, or no access
So, assuming there’s enough total energy resources in the world for the current total energy demand, the issue might be more related distribution of energy and access to energy, rather than having enough total energy
How Much Energy Will The World Need/Use In The Future?
Some estimates indicate that by the year 2100, the world might be using anywhere between 70 TW to 123 TW of energy a year
This is a significant increase from the estimated 18 TW the world is using right now
It could be even higher when adding future urbanisation to that figure
The amount of energy we use in the future though is dependent on a range of key factors and variables though, such as global average per capita energy use (impacted by the average global standard of living), population growth, and the rate of urbanisation
We provide more information on these factors/variables below
Future Energy Consumption In Developed vs Developing Countries
Majority of the future increase in energy demand might come from developing regions of the world increasing their standard of living and per capita energy consumption
Will The World Have Enough Energy In The Future?
This is a very broad question that has a lot of variables to consider.
We discuss the following considerations in the guide below:
– Different countries and cities have different abilities to meet future energy demand
– How much future energy demand increases matters
– The remaining energy resources
How Will The World Meet Future Energy Demand?
It might depend on the individual city or country in question i.e. what their energy sector currently looks like, and what their energy plans are for the future
In terms of the energy sources the world might use, what we do know is that right now although renewable energy is growing across several metrics, fossil fuels still make up majority of global primary energy use
General Factors That Might Impact Energy Production & Consumption In The Future
We list a range of general factors that might impact energy production and consumption in the future in the guide below
Energy Sectors & Projections Differ Between Different Cities & Countries
Ultimately, energy sectors differ between different cities and countries around the world
Whether there ‘might be enough energy in the future’ might require an individual assessment of the energy sector and energy situation for each individual city or country
Difference Between Primary Energy vs Electricity
It’s important to note that primary energy is different to electricity generation
Primary energy includes all energy, such as transport fuels, heating and cooling energy, electricity, and so on
Electricity generation is energy used specifically for electricity generation
Most of the data in the guide below refers to primary energy use, except where electricity or another form of secondary energy is specified
Different Ways To Measure & Express Energy Production & Consumption
There’s different ways to measure or express energy use
A few key expressions are total energy use, and also per capita energy use
Energy use can be measured in different units too, such as watts, kW, and Btu.
Different measurements and expressions have been used in the guide below
How Much Energy Does The World Currently Use?
Total global primary energy consumption in 2021 was around 604 quadrillion Btu
And, in 2016, the world used around around 18 trillion watts of power
Per capita energy consumption data can also be found below, both in kW, and Btu
Total Global Primary Energy Consumption – Btu
In 2021 … world primary energy consumption [was about …] 604 quadrillion Btu … (eia.gov)
Total Global Power Consumption – In Trillions Of Watts
In 2016 … the amount of power needed to keep human civilisation going was 18 trillion watts … and this number includes all commercially traded fuels and renewable sources (anthropocenemagazine.org)
Global Per Capita Energy Consumption – In kW
Per capita energy consumption today averages just 2.5 kW worldwide (anthropocenemagazine.org)
Global Average Per Capita Consumption – In Btu
The world average per capita consumption of primary energy in 2016 was about 76.8 million Btu (eia.gov)
How Much Energy Does The United States Currently Use?
In 2021, total US primary energy consumption was around 98 quadrillion Btu – about 16% of total world primary energy consumption
There’s several sets of per capita energy consumption data for the US listed below too
The average per capita annual power consumption of 9.5 kilowatts (kW) is higher than the global figure of 2.5 kW worldwide
Total Primary Energy Consumption In The United States – Btu
In 2021, U.S. total primary energy consumption was about 98 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu), which was equal to about 16% of total world primary energy consumption … (eia.gov)
United States’ Average Per Capita Consumption – In Btu
In 2017, total U.S. primary energy consumption per person (or per capita consumption) was about 300 million British thermal units (Btu) (eia.gov)
United States’ Average Residential & Transportation Per Capita Consumption – In Btu
From energy.gov:
… the average American consumes 149 million Btu — or 37 million kcal — a year in residential and transportation-related energy [which equates to] burning of over 15,000 pounds of coal a year [or] about 41 pounds of coal a day
United States’ Per Capita Annual Power Consumption – In kW
Today … the typical American (per person) uses 9.5 kilowatts (kW), averaged over the year [which is the equivalent to 18 electric-stove burners running nonstop on high, all day, every day] (anthropocenemagazine.org)
Recent Annual Global Energy Consumption Trend
Various annual global primary energy consumption graphs available online show that energy consumption has continually increased over time on a yearly basis since the 1800’s, with annual energy consumption increasing significantly from around 1950 until the present
The 20th century in general has seen a significant increase in energy consumption
… during the 20th century, annual energy use rose 17 fold (anthropocenemagazine.org)
Is There Currently Enough Energy & Electricity In The World For Everyone?
Putting aside the quality or reliability of a power supply, and factors like the cost of petroleum fuel products (which may limit how much some people can buy), people in many developed regions of the world generally have access to adequate energy.
However, people in other regions of the world that are lower income or less developed don’t have the same access to energy
For example, at least a billion people in the present day still lack access to electricity or have limited access to adequate electricity
From anthropocenemagazine.org:
… today, a [billion people still have a] complete lack of access to electricity …
Most of the 2 billion poorest people [in the world] still burn wood, charcoal, dung, or leftovers from farming to cook their food.
Will The World Produce & Use More Energy In The Future?
Based on the recent annual energy consumption increase trend, it might be fair to assume then that total energy consumption will generally continue to trend up in the future
The questions might be to what total it increases to, and what rate (speed) will it increase at?
If history is anything to go by – we will use more energy in the future – it’s just a matter of how we do it – not if (anthropocenemagazine.org)
How Much Energy Will The World Need/Use In The Future?
Some estimates indicate that by the year 2100, the world might be using anywhere between 70 TW to 123 TW of energy a year
It could be even higher though when including future urbanisation
How much energy we need in the future though might depend on key factors like:
– The Global Average Standard Of Living
When average global per capita energy consumption increases, total energy use might increase
Ontop of the 18 TW of energy we use today, lifting other parts of the world to the US’ current standard of living might mean the world needs an additional 51 TW of energy by the year 2100, bringing the world to around 70 TW of total energy use
This does not include population growth or urbanisation though
– Population Growth
When population size increases, total energy use might increase
Taking into account population growth ontop of the numbers above, energy use by the year 2100 might be up to 95 to 123 TW of energy a year (as opposed to 70TW)
– Rate Of Urbanisation
As more people move to urban areas like cities, total energy use might increase
Urbanisation would increase the energy requirements outlined above
Potential Energy Demand By The Year 2100, When Lifting The World To The US’ Current Standard Of Living, & Not Accounting For Population Growth
From anthropocenemagazine.org:
Lifting all of humanity to the current US standard of living by 2100—an average of 9.5 kW per person, probably a conservative projection—thus means generating more than 51 TW of energy on top of everything we already produce today [, which is around 18 TW]
[By] the year 2100 … [this will see] demand reach 70 TW.
[This would be the equivalent of taking] every coal-fired generator, nuclear power plant, wind turbine, and solar farm [we currently use] and then [multiplying] it by four
… this doesn’t take into consideration population growth or urbanization though.
Potential Energy Demand By The Year 2100, Accounting For Population Growth
From anthropocenemagazine.org:
… with population growth accounted for [in the above numbers], we will be using between 95–123 TW of energy annually in the year 2100
Including Urbanisation Could Increase Energy Demand By The Year 2100
When we take into account future rate of urbanisation, the energy use requirements [outlined above] could be even higher …
Future Energy Consumption In Developed vs Developing Countries
Most of the future increase in energy demand might come from lesser developed parts of the world increasing their standard of living and per capita energy consumption rates to come closer to countries like the US (whose per capita energy consumption is currently much higher)
Will The World Have Enough Energy In The Future? (Will Supply Meet Demand?)
This is a very broad question that has a lot of variables to consider.
But, some of the main considerations in answering this question might be:
– Different countries and cities have different abilities to meet future energy demand
– How much future energy demand increases matters
– The remaining energy resources
Different Countries & Cities Have Different Abilities To Meet Future Energy Demand
Access to energy and electricity already differs in different cities and countries around the world for various reasons, such as economic development, financial means, domestic supplies of energy resources (like oil, coal, natural gas, and so on), international trade relationships, local energy sectors, and other factors.
As a result, it stands to reason then that some countries and cities may continue to be able to meet future energy demand, whilst others might find it more challenging (unless their situation changes).
How Much Future Energy Demand Increases Matters
Future energy demand might matter for a number of reasons.
One example might be that if demand continues to increase without a subsequent increase in supply, energy and electricity may become more expensive, and less accessible to those in lower income brackets.
To monitor whether supply is keeping pace with demand, on both a global and country by country level, it may be worth tracking the annual trend of energy production vs energy consumption over time – both in total, and per capita
Remaining Energy Resources
Whether there are enough energy resources and other resources left to use to continue to meet energy demand is a question in itself.
We’ve written several guides on the topic:
Will There Be Enough Resources Left In The Future?
Will There Be Enough Fossil Fuels Left In The Future?
Will There Be Enough Uranium Left In The Future?
In regards to renewable energy, renewable energy use is projected to increase, but, there’s a range of minerals and resources required to make renewable energy equipment and technology like solar panels, wind turbines, energy storage batteries, and so on.
How Will The World Meet Future Energy Demand?
It may differ from country to country, or city to city
It depends on the current makeup of their energy sector, and what their plans and forecasts are for their energy sector going forward
In terms of the energy sources that are used …
On a global level, what we do know is that renewable energy sources like solar and wind are growing across several metrics like installed capacity, and are projected to continue to grow into the future.
Having said that though, fossil fuels currently make up majority of the world’s primary energy share.
From a practical point of view, going on past trends, fossil fuels may continue to provide a significant % of the world’s energy going into the short to medium term future at least.
The question we face is where the extra energy is going to come from in the future as nuclear and renewable energy has so far not contributed to a big increase in total energy provided – the fraction of global energy provided by fossil fuels is about the same [in 2017] (86 percent) as it was in 2002 (anthropocenemagazine.org)
You can read summarised energy profiles of the US and China here:
Energy In The United States: Past, Present, & Potential Future
Energy In China: Past, Present, & Potential Future
General Factors That Might Impact Energy Production & Consumption In The Future
Some of the general factors that might impact energy production globally and locally in the future might include, but aren’t limited to:
– Standard Of Living
i.e. how resource intensive people’s lifestyles are, their total consumption as well as rate of consumption, and other similar metrics
– Economic Development
Energy use might follow in lock step with the rate or level of economic development and economic growth of a country
As disposable income increases, standards of living might improve, and energy consumption increases too
– Population Size & Growth
Both total population size, and, how fast population size grows
Read more about population growth in this guide
– Rate Of Urbanization
i.e. % of population moving to urban areas and to the city
From anthropocenemagazine.org:
Urbanisation boosts individual energy use per person with higher household and transport (from more cars) energy use.
– Energy Production
Both total energy production, and per capita energy production
Greater total installed capacity, or greater power output of the existing installed capacity, might lead to greater energy production for example
– Energy Consumption
Both total energy consumption, and per capita energy consumption
– Energy Resources Left
i.e. how much fossil fuels, uranium and other energy related resources are left (in terms of proven reserves), and how accessible they are
– Access To Renewable Energy Resources
For renewable energy, countries need geographic access to adequate sunlight, wind, and other natural resources – so, climate and geography matters more for these energy sources.
– Future Developments
Improvements in the capabilities of different energy sources (being able to be used in different ways for examples), improvements in energy technology (improvements in efficiency or power output for example), use of new technology like AI, and other future variables and factors
Rather than becoming more efficient with energy use in the future, some reports suggest that total energy use needs to be reduced
– Other
Other important factors might include but aren’t limited to:
How much electricity we produce and use, and how efficient production and consumption is
The total number of vehicles in operation (on the road, in the air, in the water, on rail, and so on), the total distance they travel every year, how they are powered, and how efficient they are
How hot or cold different climates become in the future. Significantly hotter or colder climates may mean more heating and cooling is required, and obviously energy is required to power these heating and cooling systems.
Energy Sectors & Projections Differ Between Different Cities & Countries
The makeup of the energy sector, and the different factors and variables impacting it, differ between the different countries and cities around the world
Therefore, projections and estimations of how much energy will be required in the future and whether this demand can be met may require an individual assessment for each country or city
A good energy sector strategy and good energy sector planning (to meet future demand for individuals, the different industries and sectors, and so on) might be considered important for all cities and countries
Potential Impact Of Increased Energy Production & Consumption On Sustainability In The Future
Increased future energy production and consumption has a potential sustainability impact to consider
Energy usually requires mining/extraction of resources, the use of energy resources, the use of water, has a carbon footprint and a range of other environmental footprints, and, may result in a range of environmental issues to consider.
Read more about the sustainability of different energy sources.
Sources
1. http://www.anthropocenemagazine.org/howmuchenergy/
2. https://www.energy.gov/articles/how-much-do-you-consume
3. https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=85&t=1
4. https://www.cnbc.com/2016/10/07/how-will-we-power-the-planet-in-2050.html
5. https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/11/5-predictions-for-energy-in-2030/
6. Various ‘Better Meets Reality’ guides
7. https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=87&t=1
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